08/13/2024

Hey Trader,

The market is trying to make a comeback, but traders are skeptical. Is this a true comeback or a fake out?

I don't blame them, I know a lot of people got burnt the last couple weeks. The market looked so strong and shazam, a total knife fall.

While bulls may be the clever ones here picking a perfect time to go long, bears are arguing that the recent sell off and bounce is a bear flag.

If you look without any real indicator, yes it looks, talks, and walks like a bear flag. But bear flags, just like any technical pattern, aren't what they are unless they are triggered…and the volume profile is telling me this flag can't be validated. Lean in.

In the first chart you see the bear flag with no volume profile however in the second chart, adding the VP, we see major support where the flag should breakout. Think of these nodes like steel shelves. They're tough to break! So if that's tough the break, it'll be hard for the bear flag to come into fruition.

The shelf NEVER breaks, however it is possible for it to switch roles.

The only way this shelf can bust is if price gaps below it. We have a series of pre market macro data this week to possibly make that happen. Let’s say PPI or CPI gets a bad reaction from traders, that can cause price to open below this shelf, and then that steel shelf can now be your resistance.

If that is the case, SPY has 50 points to drop to around 511. That'll be one hell of an August.

But as long as price holds above this level and sustains the incoming macro winds, we're going to be riding the bull into the first day of school!

Next up, Mark made an extensive deep dive into the market plus he’s got FIVE big money flow stocks to watch!

Market Moves and Big Money Flow Spotlight 

By Mark Sebastian

After a nice rally in the S&P 500 we had a DOJI right at where the gap was filled on Friday.

VIX after seeming like it wanted to collapse on Monday morning actually started to rally.

Bonds seem to have found a floor as well.

If the Russell is any indication, it is back in trouble.

And look at the intraday reversal in AAPL and NVDA.

Don't let the last two days get you sleepy, there is more volatility coming.

Big Money Flow TOP 5:

Roll down and out in TSLA a trader went long the TSLA Sep 230 calls, sold to close, and rolled back and down to the November 225 calls. This is a trader that was wrong buying more time. Not one to jump on, but there is a ton of conviction here.

MASSIVE opening put trade in TEVA with the trader buying 67k of the August 23 16 puts. This is a direct play on the stock dropping and likely not a hedge.

Tied to stock a trader bought 10k of the November 43 DAL calls. While the trade is looking for the underlying to move although the trade leans bullish.

Decent sized puts in AAL bought here.  The trader is probably hedging a debt position, but AAL looks sick. The market is still near highs, but not this stock.

I kinda like this call buy in AMZN. It has time and is right near the money and who doesn't think AMZN can get over 184 by December if the market takes off again?

This volatile market is a prime time to win bigtime. Come ride the next profit wave with us. Our epic daily trading show, Trade to Close, has a FREE TRIAL with your name on it. 

Don't miss out – let's make some money moves, shall we?

We trade live every single trading day at 3pm ET…

Hope to see you today!

Always be closing,

Olivia Voz and Mark Sebastian