TRADE TO CLOSE

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Why I’m having a caviar hot dog pool party this weekend

I am, embarrassingly, becoming a bit of a Palm Beach socialite. The Cigar Lounge is where I make my network now, and the people who hang out there are not posting their portfolio on TikTok. They are the ones whose decisions move companies before any of us hear the name. One of them dropped Cerebras (CBRS) on my radar before the IPO was public, and my radar started going off the moment I heard. I got the allocation, watched it open, took my double right into the rip. I am still holding a piece. Of course I am. But I covered most of the gain because I am not greedy and I knew exactly what was coming next. What was coming next… Most IPOs rarely rage, it takes weeks sometimes months for them to find their footing. Look at META, UBER, and the list goes on. Of course, the market

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One trade. 45 minutes. $5,500.

Here's what the average trader doesn't know about the last hour. Between 3:00 pm and 4:00 pm ET, 30 to 40 percent of all S&P 500 options volume changes hands. That's almost half the day's action piling into the final hour. The market trades for six and a half hours, the first five and a half get 60 percent of the volume, then boom, the last hour gets the rest. Mark called this his "tush push" moment on last night’s training. The Eagles quarterback wants to get across the goal line, but it's the three guys behind him doing the actual pushing. The volume that piles into the close is what pushes the market across the goal line, every single day. I made my model the way it is because I wanted to read that push before it happens. Where The Volume Actually Comes From Mark used to trade on

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The reason 9 out of 10 traders lose money

The reason 9 out of 10 retail traders lose money is not what most people think. In 2000, two researchers named Brad Barber and Terrance Odean published a study called "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth." They tracked 66,465 households trading through a discount broker between 1991 and 1996, and they sorted every household by how often they traded, from least active to most active. The finding was brutal. The most active 20% of traders earned an average annual return of 11.4% over the period. The market returned 17.9%. The most active traders underperformed the market by 6.5% per year, every year, for six straight years. The traders who lost the most weren't the ones with the worst stock picks. They were the ones making the most decisions. Barber and Odean traced almost every dollar of underperformance to the same root cause. Overconfidence. The traders who thought they had an

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