Trade To Close

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A gorgeous setup is not a reason to buy

The best-looking setup on my charts is not a buy. Everything is lined up. The market is coiling into a tight pennant, coming from strength, on volume that is finally rising instead of fading. It is locked and ready to rock and roll. And I am not touching it, my loves. Not yet. There is one thing missing that separates a setup that looks perfect from a move you can trust, and most people never wait for it. Let me show you what it is. First, let me show you what has me excited, because the picture is a good one. The market has been holding a pennant, which is when price coils into a tighter and tighter range. The wider the mouth at the base and the smaller it gets as it goes, here, here, here, the more likely it breaks out. This one is coming from strength. That

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Three stocks just flashed the exact same signal on my chart.

Three stocks just flashed the exact same signal on my chart. They all closed back above the star of the show. That is my 40-period simple moving average, the average price over the last 40 bars, and it is the one line I care about more than any other. Somebody in the room even calls it the Sebastian indicator, which I love. Here is why it matters, my loves. When price breaks below that line, a stock usually keeps sliding, and when it climbs back above, I pay attention. All three of these just climbed back above it, so let's go over them. Before we do, one thing about how I am reading this market. We have been in a bull market for years and years and years, and when you have that kind of momentum, the bulls tend to come back and use it. So I do not like

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The market lies to you right before it tells the truth

The market loves to lie right before it tells the truth. It pushes price just past a level, gets everybody leaning the wrong way, and then snaps back and goes the other direction. If you have ever jumped in on a breakout and watched it reverse on you a candle later, you have met this move. It has a tell, though, and once you can see it, you stop getting caught by it. I have a level I track for exactly this, and the other day it set up about as cleanly as it ever does. Let me show you how it works so you can add it to your own toolkit. So here is the level: It is the 13% Fibonacci, an extra line most traders never even add to their Fibonacci sequence. I use it as a fake out level, and once you have it on your chart

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