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Losses Don’t Kill Traders. Big Losses Do.

Every trader has losses. I want you to read that again. I see traders beating themselves up over losing trades like something went wrong. Nothing went wrong. You traded, the market disagreed. That is the job. The traders who wash out are not the ones who lose. They are the ones who lose big. They break their rules when a position moves against them. They add to losers, blow through their stop because they are convinced the stock is about to turn. And then one trade takes them out of the game entirely. That is not a trading problem. That is a psychology problem. And it happens because they had no rules, or they had rules and did not follow them. I am a chaotic wildfire. I know what I am. That is exactly why I like rules. I never risk more than 1 to 2% of my account on

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We Are Right Below All-Time Highs. I Am Still Not Calling This a Breakout.

We are sitting right below all-time highs. Mark pointed out this morning that VIX is back to where it was in early February before any of this started. Bank earnings came in strong across the board. The tape looks good on the surface. And I am still not calling this a breakout. Here is why. What I need to see is a gap up above the current resistance. A clean move that takes us out of this range. Until that happens, we are still inside the mess. Sitting below a ceiling is not the same as breaking through it. My 40 is still pointed up. The structure is intact. QQQ has more room than SPY right now, which tells me there is still participation in this tape. But the W pattern question is real. Are we at the top of the W before things roll back over, or are we

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The Market Pulled Back Hard This Afternoon. Here Is What I Saw.

This afternoon the market handed us a test. We were running strong all morning. Then around 1PM it pulled back. A sharp selloff that dropped us back through the levels I had been watching, shook out a lot of positions, and had people second-guessing the whole move. I watched it the whole way down and I did not panic. Here is why. My 40 held. The W-shape that had been building through the afternoon was still intact. The wicks on the down candles told me sellers were trying to push lower and buyers kept stepping in underneath. The momentum slowed but it never actually rolled over. That is the difference between a pullback and a reversal. A pullback tests you. A reversal breaks the structure. The structure never broke. The buyers came back, reclaimed the levels, and we pushed through $693.67 into the close. That is the reclaim I needed

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