TRADE TO CLOSE

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One trade. 45 minutes. $5,500.

Here's what the average trader doesn't know about the last hour. Between 3:00 pm and 4:00 pm ET, 30 to 40 percent of all S&P 500 options volume changes hands. That's almost half the day's action piling into the final hour. The market trades for six and a half hours, the first five and a half get 60 percent of the volume, then boom, the last hour gets the rest. Mark called this his "tush push" moment on last night’s training. The Eagles quarterback wants to get across the goal line, but it's the three guys behind him doing the actual pushing. The volume that piles into the close is what pushes the market across the goal line, every single day. I made my model the way it is because I wanted to read that push before it happens. Where The Volume Actually Comes From Mark used to trade on

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The reason 9 out of 10 traders lose money

The reason 9 out of 10 retail traders lose money is not what most people think. In 2000, two researchers named Brad Barber and Terrance Odean published a study called "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth." They tracked 66,465 households trading through a discount broker between 1991 and 1996, and they sorted every household by how often they traded, from least active to most active. The finding was brutal. The most active 20% of traders earned an average annual return of 11.4% over the period. The market returned 17.9%. The most active traders underperformed the market by 6.5% per year, every year, for six straight years. The traders who lost the most weren't the ones with the worst stock picks. They were the ones making the most decisions. Barber and Odean traced almost every dollar of underperformance to the same root cause. Overconfidence. The traders who thought they had an

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A 50-minute Head Start On The Closing Auction

There's a thing the market does every day at 3 PM that I've become a little obsessed with. It's a data feed the NYSE Arca exchange starts publishing live at exactly 3:00 pm every trading day, and for the next 50 minutes it shows where the biggest money in the market is positioning into the close. Most of Wall Street sees this same information at 3:50 pm. Mark and I see it at 3:00. Here's the thing about me. I'm a chaotic wildfire as a trader, which is exactly why I'm obsessed with rules. Give me a signal that fires at the same time every day on the same ticker and I will run it into the ground. Mark Sebastian feels the same way. We've been reading this feed together every trading day for months and built one of the cleanest little trade structures I've ever put on. One ticker,

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