Trade To Close

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3 Trades to Watch for Next Week

So Nvidia is just sitting there mid chart, up near the highs, in no man's land, and there's nothing underneath it and nothing right above it either. When a stock is parked near its highs going into earnings it's going to look for a breakout, that's just what they do, so I take a local low to high and that gives me $231 to $240 on the upside. Fine. Anybody can draw that one. The downside is where I do something you're probably not doing. Pull up your volume profile, which is that sideways bar graph running down the right side of your chart telling you how much trading happened at every single price. Everybody looks at the fat part. Where's the point of control, where has it spent all its time, where's the heaviest volume. I'm looking for the opposite. I want to know where the volume isn't. Because

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That Thin Zone on Your Chart Isn’t Real

Okay so let's talk about the volume profile, and specifically the thin zone. If you've never used one, here's the whole thing in a sentence. It shows you how much trading happened at every price level, stacked sideways on your chart like a bar graph turned on its side. Fat area, tons of shares changed hands there. Skinny area, almost nothing did. That skinny part is the thin zone. And we care about it because where nobody traded, nobody has a position to defend, so there's no pressure sitting there and price can just slice right through. It's a hallway with nobody standing in it. So you hear it constantly. Oh my God, there's a thin zone, this thing is going to rip. Okay. Now here's where people get it wrong. I pulled up Apple in the room today and I asked everybody, with volume profile analysis, what do you

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We Want to Be the Momentum, Not Enter on It

I want to give you one rule today, and it's the opposite of what feels right, so pay attention. We want to be the momentum, not enter on the momentum. Here's what I mean. When a move gets big enough that you notice it, the people who are going to make money on it were already sitting there before you showed up. You're not catching the move at that point. You're the person they're selling it to. So I do the whole thing backwards from how most people trade it. When one of my positions gets a big boost, that's my signal to take the money. Not to add, not to let it ride, take it. Because a boost like that is momentum, and momentum is when everybody wants in, which means everybody who wanted in already is now looking for somebody to sell to. And when something I want

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