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The Fattest Bar on Your Chart

Most people see resistance on a chart and back away. I get it. Price runs into a level, gets rejected, runs into it again, gets rejected again. Why would you want to be there? Here's when I want to be there. I was looking at Spectrum Brands (SPB) yesterday and it's sitting right at its point of control, which is just the price where more volume has traded than anywhere else on the chart. It's where the most shares changed hands, so it's where the most people have a position and an opinion. Price hitting that level is normally where things stall out. But when something is pressing into the point of control and there's real participation behind it, you're looking at a spring getting compressed instead of a wall. It's like a jack-in-the-box, and the longer it coils under there the harder it pops when it finally goes, because

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(New Video) I Have A Running Joke That I Don’t Trade This

Okay so I have a running joke with my members that I don't like trading oil. The reason is that oil barely cares what the chart says. You can find a gorgeous technical setup, feel great about it, and then wake up to some geopolitical thing that sends the whole sector one way or the other and none of your levels matter anymore. So I mostly leave it alone. Except this one keeps getting requested, it's trending, and when I finally pulled it up I understood why. Bull flag after bull flag going back months, and volume kicking in hard on the most recent breakout, which tells me buyers want it at these prices. And then I saw the pattern that gets me excited, which also happens to be the one most people read completely backwards. I walked through the whole setup in a video. Where the measured move lands,

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I Passed on A Breakout Today and Here’s Why

Okay so I passed on a breakout today and I want to tell you why. Everything about it looked right. Price broke over the level I had marked, it lined up perfectly with the 40-period moving average, and if you'd shown me that chart cold I would have said take it. I said out loud that it was high risk instead. About ten minutes later it dumped, and the whole thing failed. I wasn't being clever. There was one specific thing about that setup that made me nervous, and once I explain it you're going to see it everywhere, on every chart, on whatever timeframe you trade. It's the difference between catching a move and paying for one that already happened. So we were flagging on SPY, which just means price ran and then went sideways in a tight little range while everybody caught their breath, which is textbook continuation

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