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Not Every Level Lets You Go

We're sitting right below multi-day VWAP right now. I want to talk about this level specifically, because it does not behave the way people think a level behaves. You break a 200-period moving average and that kind of helps you. Path of least resistance to the other side. Multi-day VWAP is a completely different animal. You break it and it pulls you right back in. There's a word for what this level does to you and it took me a second to find it, so let me show you the chart first and then I'll tell you what it is. Start with the moving average, because that one works the way you'd expect. You break a 200-period and that kind of helps. It opens up the path of least resistance to that other side. And if it holds instead of breaking, it creates a concrete wall, kind of hinders price.

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Trading Today 7.27.26

Something is very weird right now. And it would be a little more obvious how bad this is looking if it was not July. Let's just cut to the meat here. This does not look good. The Qs are breaking down. They are breaking down, guys. SPY had an ascending wedge and that gave out too, so both have officially broken down. On what, though? I seriously don't know. I don't know if it's a front run of tech earnings, I don't know if it's Iran, I don't know if it's the Fed. But there's one thing in the volume that tells me this is real. I'll show you the exact spot where people started figuring it out, and how far I think it goes. Somebody asked me today that the market looks like it's getting ready to drop. Honey, it's dropping. It's dropping. That's the thing about doing this

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The Market Broke Down And Nobody Pulled The Trigger

This is telling me the market is bracing for harm. It's predicting that there is bad news out there, and we have not received that bad news yet. And think about when this is happening. It's July. The hedge fund guys are in the Hamptons drinking rum, they're not sitting at a desk dealing with this. You don't get volatility like this in the summer, usually. Somebody's positioning for something instead of responding to something. Now, whenever I catch myself getting a little too sure about a read, I go do this. I pull up the Dow. I never look at the Dow. But every news channel out there references it constantly, which means a whole lot of people are forming their entire opinion about this market off that one chart. So I put it up, and it's doing the opposite of what SPY and QQQ are doing. One of

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