It’s Hard to Be a Rich Permabear

It's hard to be a rich permabear.

Trading from Villefranche. Tough office, I know.

I say that with love, because I know some of you are sitting there in this raging bull market, staring at all-time highs, absolutely itching to short something.

And look, I get it. There are cracks out there. There are always cracks if you go looking.

Funny thing about where I'm sitting right now.

Villefranche has one of the deepest natural harbors in the whole Mediterranean.

The water looks calm and gorgeous on top, and then about a mile out it drops straight into a 1,700-foot underwater canyon.

Beautiful surface, huge drop underneath.

That's this market, if I'm being honest. But here's the thing about that drop: it's been sitting there the whole time, and the water's still flat.

Bitcoin rolled over first.

It broke symmetry back in late May and started following through to the downside, and that's usually the first domino I watch for.

Then the Russell started to wobble, and that's your second domino. So yeah, the bears have a list.

They always have a list.

But here's what years of doing this has taught me.

Information is not the same thing as a market reaction. Facts are facts, but in a strong bull market those facts take their sweet time showing up in price.

You can be completely right about the danger and completely early, and early is just a fancy word for wrong when your option expires Friday.

So the bears get their knee-jerk reaction, a little flush, and then the market does what it's been doing all along.

It climbs.

"Peek-a-boo! I see you!: LVMH and Accor Unveil the World’s Largest Sailing Yacht"

 

That's why I'm not out here trying to be a hero.

I'm in the buy-the-dip camp, and I'll stay there until the chart tells me otherwise.

SPY is in a clean channel. You buy the dip, you sell the rip, and you do that over and over until it stops working.

When the channel finally breaks, you flip around and run the same play to the downside.

Same dance, other direction.

And the beautiful part? You'll be wrong sometimes.

You'll run that play five, seven times in a row, bank it, and then one will miss. That's fine by me. You don't need to catch the top. You just keep taking the high-probability shot and let the math do its thing.

So that's what I'm doing from my spot over the bay.

No heroics, catching knives, just the plan, while I wait to see which way that water finally moves.

And speaking of the plan, tonight's the night.

At midnight, my Game Plan discount goes away.

After the pattern day trader wall comes down tomorrow, the rate goes back up.

Lock it in before midnight, and I'll see you in the morning.

>> LOCK IN FOUNDING MEMBERS RATE — BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT

Rock On,

Voz