08/09/2024

Hey Trader,

You know I live and breathe the markets, and I'm all about identifying those bullish and bearish conditions. But let me break it down even further for you.

Bullish Conditions: When the price respects volume and technical patterns, whether it’s moving up or down.

Bearish Conditions: Imagine a stock on a wild ride like "Cocaine Bear" – completely unpredictable, no matter what technicals or information you use.

But don't worry, I've got a few tricks up my sleeve to keep us on the right side of both.

Bear markets: These aren't for the faint-hearted. This latest sell-off was more intense than May. One trick I use to spot a shift from bull to bear is simply noticing when bullish patterns start failing. All those gap fills, breakouts, and trends will eventually hit a wall. I saw it happen with AMD, one of our last bullish plays. It was set to explode in mid-July but instead rolled over in sloooow motion. When you see these trends spread through the market, you know we're in for a wild ride.

Another trick for spotting a reversal is when technical patterns start working again. It's like watching Brad Pitt bounce back after a facelift – glorious!

We swing trade and day trade using my volume profile strategy. Once the price starts respecting volume patterns again, whether it’s going up or down, those bullish conditions are sneaking back in.

Case in point: On Tuesday, prices obeyed my volume patterns perfectly. We sold off hard into the close and, as you can see, we made absolute bank. I told the Closers this wasn’t a bearish move but rather a respectful reaction. Predictability is back, and we even went long into the week.

SPY's price has re-entered the volume profile, handing us some amazing trading opportunities. Now we have predictable setups, and I want you to jump in and trade them with me!

Sign up for a free trial of our daily live trading show, Trade to Close, right here!

Next, check out Mark’s market breakdown.

Market Moves Spotlight 

By Mark Sebastian

Thursday felt nice…

The market rallied 119.81 points just off the lows.

Just over the 100 DMA.

This was below the high from Wednesday but above the high from Tuesday.

The positive: There was NO reversal despite a bad auction.

The negative: VIX.

Term structure is still clearly in backwardation.

When we are backward, returns tend to be negative. I would rather be long at the 50 DMA a 100 points higher.

I continue to think AAPL is at the crux of this. Watch that stock. AAPL is probably going to have one more really bad day and that will likely be the bottom.

Don’t forget to take advantage of our free trial right here and trade the next move with us.

Always be closing,

Olivia Voz and Mark Sebastian