How to Slay the Bear 101
04/05/2024
Hey Trader,
We made a perfect observation in the past few newsletters predicting the market was brewing up some trouble…
We witnessed market inefficiencies that proved the market wasn’t on auto pilot and traders started paying attention.
The Fed directs the market and this week Kashkari decided to deflate our bouncy house suggesting no rate changes this year?!? That threw us all off. We traded this news into Thursday’s bombshell bear where Closers of course rang the register.
We turned one of the worst days in the market into one of the most profitable days on our live show yet:
If you aren’t in the room with us, what are you waiting for?
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Thursday’s move is concerning for the broader market.
I'm not going to claim to call market tops and bottoms but I will claim that I can get close. First you see the inefficiencies, and then you start the trend reversal. That's when I switch gears, right at that trend change.
Today (Friday’s) non farm payroll news will be a huge tell all. If we break that support I keep pointing out, we’re gonna blast through the volume profile and officially see the correction!
I understand some of you guys feel that concern, we all do. The market was trending higher and there was no reason to start shorting anything until we got some follow through. It's important to be consistent with the plan.
If the market magically decides to rally after this data and reclaims where it has been earlier this week, we’ll be ok into Monday.
But if we sell off, Monday will be very very ugly.
Mark has a similar take from the VIX side of things…
Market Moves Spotlight
By Mark Sebastian
VIX futures are in partial backwardation.
Thursday's candle was the ugliest candle in a long time. If we are down on Friday it sets up the bad Thursday, worse Friday, and boom on Monday.
Don’t be left out in the cold trying to navigate this market alone.
Always be closing,
Olivia Voz and Mark Sebastian
