This market didn't need NVDA for months and it showed.
The rally ran wide, other parts of the AI trade carried it, and the tape found plenty to hold onto. NVDA stepped back and the market went without it.
But I think Wednesday night changes that. This market has been stalling, sitting right at the edge of where it either breaks higher or rolls over. NVDA's print is the push.
The print itself is not going to tell you anything. Four quarters in a row NVDA beat expectations, so the beat is already priced in.
It's how the market reacts to the guidance that gives you the read.
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Does the market rally on the news and hold it through 10:30? That's the only thing I'm watching Thursday morning. By 10:30, the initial reaction has had time to settle, and if the rally is still holding, the tape is telling you something real.
If NVDA delivers and the market holds the rally through 10:30, we're still in a bull tape and the right move is to lean in. If the tape fades on a strong print, something shifted this week. That's when I start treating every rally as a fade, not a buy.
Here's what I'm doing going into Wednesday night: nothing. I'm not front-running the print and I'm not trying to guess the guidance. I'm letting Thursday morning tell me what the tape thinks.
If I like the setup, I’ll have a Game Plan trade in the morning.
If you're holding positions in AI stocks, tighten your stops before Thursday's open, and if you want insurance, Mark told me index puts are cheap right now. They pay out if the tape fades, and if they don't hit, you're out a few dollars. That's the trade-off.
There was no Fuse trade this afternoon, but that’s okay. With three straight down days, the market has a few questions to answer. It’s funny how this always happens around the time Nvidia releases earnings.
Rock On,
Voz