Hey gamers,
Okay so 274 people jumped on Monday’s show and apparently half of you were trying to figure out if I’m real or some bot that sends emails. (Really guys? A bot with crazy hair and mouse problems?)
Alright, so I gotta tell you something that’s probably gonna sound backwards.
Actually, let me just say it — I trade SMALLER during the first 15 minutes when everyone else is going all in.
I know, I know. Sounds crazy, right?
So the path of least resistance is clearly up right now. We’re making nice breakouts, pennant breakouts, approaching those all-time highs around 607. The 40-day moving average is turning higher — everything’s looking pretty bullish.
But Monday morning we get this put zone that triggers right on that first five-minute candle. Big engulfing candle, market just opened, everyone’s probably thinking “easy money, let’s go!”
Me? I’m looking at it and I’m like, nope. Not loving it. And honestly, I didn’t love Monday’s levels at all. Like, at all. The zone was there, it triggered according to the rules, but something felt off.
Most traders would see that setup and jump in full size, but me? I’m sitting there going “if I’m gonna play this, I’m playing it smaller.”
Look, I get it. The opening feels electric. Everyone’s buzzing, chat’s going crazy, and there’s this energy like “this is it, this is where we make our money!”
But here’s what I’ve learned — and trust me, I’ve watched way too many people blow up their accounts — the market is literally just figuring itself out in those first few minutes. Even when the bigger picture is clear (like our upward path of least resistance), those opening candles can be wild.
It’s like trying to have a serious conversation with someone who just rolled out of bed. They might eventually make sense, but those first few minutes? Pure chaos.
When I do trade those early candles (and yeah, I still do sometimes), I size way down. Way down. Because honestly? Even with a clear directional bias, the market’s still in that “three shots of espresso and figuring things out” phase.
After 15 minutes though? That’s when the real trend starts showing up. The noise settles down, the actual path of least resistance kicks in.
By the way, even though I didn’t love Monday’s put zone, you know what I did? Put it in the back test anyway. Because that’s what we do. Even the trades that feel meh teach the model something for next time.
This is the difference between having a game plan and just… gambling, basically.
And speaking of game plans — we set up our weekly SPY 604 calls for the upside move. Because when the path of least resistance is up and we’re breaking out of patterns, that’s where we want to be positioned.
Since we’re talking about game plans that sound weird but actually work… April was nuts, gamers. We didn’t have one loss. Not one.
64% gain, 87% gain, 50%, 34%, 42%… I mean, the numbers just kept coming. And it wasn’t because I was some genius catching every perfect setup. It was because I stuck to the rules even when they felt backwards.
Even when other traders were probably thinking “she’s being way too conservative in those first minutes.” Even when it looked like I was missing easy money.
Spoiler alert: there’s no such thing as easy money. But there is such thing as smart money.
If you’re not part of the crew…click here to join.
Next time you’re staring at that opening bell and feeling that FOMO creep in, just remember — even when the bigger trend is obvious, those first 15 minutes can still be a mess. The market’s still gonna be there in 20 minutes. The good moves don’t disappear in the first five minutes.
If you absolutely have to trade the open (and hey, I get the addiction), cut your size. Give yourself room to be wrong without it actually mattering.
The goal isn’t to catch every single move. The goal is to still be here next month, you know?
And if your hair looks crazy while you’re doing it… well, at least you’re keeping it real.
Alright gamers, that’s it for today.
Let the games begin.
Olivia
P.S. — Mark, yes you’re still “the expert” but I’m definitely calling you “Marc” with a C next stream. You hate that and you know it.
P.P.S. — If you’re not part of Game Plan yet and would like to join, click here to get started.
