It’s Not A Consolidation Anymore

If you're on Twitter right now and you've seen anyone say oh no, this is just a consolidation, it's not a consolidation anymore, homies.

This has broken down.

We officially broke down on a non-catalyst, because yes, the Korea story is out and about now, but we were already breaking down before that.

The reason I think this still has a huge way to go has nothing to do with the news, though. It's what's sitting underneath us on the volume profile, and it's a direct result of that move we made back in June.

Let me show you what I mean.

Go back to the Iran drama. You had a fragile market, that took it down, and then with that being solved you got a parabolic move higher.

That move was fugazi.

And when price runs parabolic like that, it doesn't build volume on the way up. Nobody's transacting in size, everybody's just chasing. So you end up with a huge thin zone in your volume profile, which means there's nothing underneath us to catch anything.

That lack of volume is going to be a falling knife.

We're about to hit the 150 at 664.36. Break that and I could see the QQQS hit 633. I'm not kidding, man. That's a 5% drop.

But we have not even seen capitulation yet.

We've had a couple gaps. What you need is the capitulatory candle, gap and then gap lower, and we're certainly setting up for that. That gap can come tonight. It can come during earnings. If we don't get one and we just kind of sit here, we'll have to wait for another catalyst, and it might be a positive one that takes us higher.

Here's the honest part, though. We understand what's happening. We don't understand why it's happening.

What is this thing front running? What is it afraid of right now? There are a lot of catalysts floating around and we need to know which one it is.

It's almost like a coming-to-Jesus moment I'm having. It's crazy.

Which is why tonight matters more than the Fed does.

Microsoft and Meta report after the bell. I'm actually not worried about Apple. I'm more concerned about Meta, Amazon and Microsoft.

And I'm not watching the numbers. I'm watching how traders react to them.

Let's say these earnings blow the doors off and we get a non-reaction, kind of like Intel didn't really do anything. Google gapped down. If a company reports good earnings and it just goes sideways, that's usually because the market is putting pressure on it. It's not in an environment where it can thrive and breathe.

So if we get decent earnings out of these guys and they go nowhere or gap down, that's still bearish to me. Even if they go flat, maybe a little up, and then sell off immediately the next day, that's the market showing us it isn't tech.

Maybe it was FOMC. Whatever the case is, I have to see the reaction.

Guys, if you want to go on a bender, you have 48 hours to do it, because this market is not for the faint of heart to trade. Wake up Friday or Monday if you want to really get into it and see where we are.

Or put your war paint on.

Rock On,

Voz

P.S. Mark and Garrett are going live at 2:15pm ET for the Fed decision. They believe this is most important Fed decision in over a decade. And with the market acting the way it is, I tend to agree. Join them here