Trading Today 7.27.26

Something is very weird right now.

And it would be a little more obvious how bad this is looking if it was not July.

Let's just cut to the meat here. This does not look good. The Qs are breaking down. They are breaking down, guys. SPY had an ascending wedge and that gave out too, so both have officially broken down.

On what, though? I seriously don't know. I don't know if it's a front run of tech earnings, I don't know if it's Iran, I don't know if it's the Fed.

But there's one thing in the volume that tells me this is real. I'll show you the exact spot where people started figuring it out, and how far I think it goes.

Somebody asked me today that the market looks like it's getting ready to drop.

Honey, it's dropping. It's dropping.

That's the thing about doing this in July. Something is totally whack with this market and everybody's treating it like a slow summer week.

Here's what I mean about usually. Usually you could see the writing on the wall. Something happens, market reacts, and you go okay, bing, bam, boom, I know what this is. It makes way more sense to trade when you've got the obvious catalyst.

We still have no idea what that catalyst was or why it stopped. Iran just happened to happen.

And the market did not want to go up here. It just didn't. It stopped. Screeching halt, dead of summer. That is not typical, and it's not normal in the summer unless there's some sort of case. This is different.

So the more I'm watching this, the more I believe this entire move right here is just fake.

Now I'm not trying to be like, they're lying and cheating us.

I'm saying the sell-off was fake and the buy was fake, because it was just the Iran story. We're down on Iran, now we're going crazy to the upside on Iran, and this was not solved yet. That move right here was fugazi.

All of this mishmash was just glitter in our face.

Look at the volume, though. This is the part.

Look at this dip in volume. Look at this. Look how people just start waking up over here. As we're selling off, people are waking up, guys.

This is not something to just glaze over.

Because people were looking at this ride up and they're like, oh, I could just buy anything and the market's just going to go up, it's so obvious.

People got messed up here. We started sniffing that something was not right a few weeks ago.

On the Qs, the measured move off that pennant puts us at 648, and logically it stops right around 664. If one of these things spooks this week, we've got another ten points to go.

And this has been very orderly, this nasty engulfing candle. It almost just seems too obvious, but that's what I mean. This is the setup.

The other thing I can't explain to you is Apple.

Apple is almost acting like an inverse. It's almost like a VIX at this point, which is so strange. Look at Apple's chart, it has been ripping while its mothership is not looking so good. Is it the new safe haven now? I don't know.

So what's in front of us. We've got the Fed, we've got PCE, we've got the big tech names reporting, and any tit for tat with Iran and Trump tweets can send some algo bombs.

No problems. No one's concerned here.

Is this going to be a tech wreck? I don't know that either.

The market's trying to think again. It's trying to figure out what it needs to hear to go up or down, and clearly it has lost some faith here.

But we can all agree this is not normal.

I'm just going to trade what's in front of me, and that's the greatest thing about being a technical trader, because you don't have any bias.

This is breakdown mode, guys.

Rock On,

Voz

P.S. Speaking of trading what’s in front of us, Game Plan has been on a heater lately… just one losing trade in this month so far…

If you’re trying to make money in this market, this is the way!