Yesterday the S&P dropped 50 points on a fake tweet.
A post on social media claimed Iran's lead negotiator had resigned and a missile had been fired.
The market panicked. In minutes 50 points were gone. Then the news was debunked and the market recovered completely. Start to finish, maybe fifteen minutes.
Some traders were holding positions they never planned for. Others were chasing headlines. A few had spent all week analyzing Iran developments and felt confident in their thesis.
None of it mattered. The market does not care about your read.
This is the market we are in right now. Whipsaws are not going anywhere.
And next week there will be another one.
Could be a rumor, could be a headline, could be another fake post that drops the market before you can verify it. You cannot research your way out of that. Speed and intelligence will not save you every time.
What you can do is control what is actually yours to control.
How much you risk. When you exit. Whether you have a plan before the open or scramble during the chaos. Spending energy trying to predict the next headline is solving the wrong problem. The headline will come when it comes.
Your job is to be positioned correctly when it does.
That is why I follow a plan every single day. No matter what the news is doing.
I get in, execute the trade, and get out. The trade has a defined window. When it is done it is done.
Yesterday the setup was not there, so we did not take it. When that fake news drop hit the market at 1 pm, it was not our problem. We were not in it. That discipline is not luck. That is the plan working exactly the way it is supposed to.
And the results reflect that.
Since March 20th, thirteen closed positions. Eleven winners. One loss. One scratch. A 100% gain on March 26th. A 71% gain on April 8th.
An 80% gain in 36 minutes on Wednesday.
These trades fire fast. They close fast. And if you're not in the system, you're not seeing them.
Every day you wait is another day you're sitting on the sidelines while winners print.
I've said everything I'm gonna say about this.
You either want a plan or you don't.
Rock On,
Voz