We are sitting right below all-time highs.
Mark pointed out this morning that VIX is back to where it was in early February before any of this started. Bank earnings came in strong across the board. The tape looks good on the surface.
And I am still not calling this a breakout.
Here is why.
What I need to see is a gap up above the current resistance. A clean move that takes us out of this range.
Until that happens, we are still inside the mess. Sitting below a ceiling is not the same as breaking through it.
My 40 is still pointed up. The structure is intact. QQQ has more room than SPY right now, which tells me there is still participation in this tape.
But the W pattern question is real. Are we at the top of the W before things roll back over, or are we about to break above it for a sustained move higher?
I do not have the answer yet. Tomorrow does.
TSMC reports in the morning. Taiwan Semiconductor fabricates roughly 80% of the AI chips powering this entire data center build-out.
If their guidance is strong, that is the catalyst that gaps us above resistance and changes the picture. If they miss or guide cautiously, that is going to ripple through every major tech name before Friday's open.
697.30 on SPY is the level I am watching. Break that on volume and hold it, we are in new territory.
Anything above that is not my problem. I will be managing what I have. Below that and we stay in the range.
For now the tape is constructive. I just need to see it prove itself above that level, and I need TSMC to give it a reason to do it.
Tomorrow morning we find out.
Rock On, Voz
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