My process was right. My timing wasn’t. Here’s the difference.
- Olivia Voz
Hey–
I just called the market direction wrong in front of 500 people. The Fed cut rates, everyone expected a rally, and I went bearish. Here’s why I’m not worried about my 93% track record.
I’ve been reading markets for nearly two decades. Started as a trading assistant at a Wall Street private equity firm. Reported live from the NYSE floor.
And today, I made a directional call that didn’t work.
Live. On camera. With hundreds watching.
Most traders would make excuses. Blame the Fed. Say the market was “irrational.”
Not me. I trade on probability, and probability says I’ll be wrong 7% of the time.
Today was that 7%.
What Actually Happened
At 3:00 PM today, I analyzed my charts. Fibonacci levels. Moving averages. Order flow patterns. Everything pointed to a bearish close despite the Fed’s dovish announcement.
I sent Mark my call: “I’m bearish.”
Mark structured the XSP trade. We went live with our prediction. The market did move down at the end… just not enough to make money on our zero-day options.
Loss number two out of 18 trades over 45 days.
The last loss? November 12th. Thirteen winning trades in between.
Why I Don’t Chase Headlines
Everyone was staring at Powell’s press conference today. Trying to read between the lines of his answers. Guessing whether “dovish” meant rally or selloff.
I was watching something that happens every trading day: institutional money repositioning at 3:00 PM.
Fed announcements happen eight times a year. Order imbalances happen every single trading day.
My Fibonacci levels don’t care what Powell says. Moving averages don’t react to press conferences. The technical patterns I follow have nothing to do with Federal Reserve theater.
That’s why we have a 93% win rate. We’re not trying to predict unpredictable news events.
My Process Never Changes
Clock in at 9. Clock out at 4. Treat this like the mechanical job it is.
At 3:00 PM, I read the charts:
- Fibonacci retracement levels
- Moving average confirmations
- Order flow through volume spikes
- Trend change indicators
If everything lines up with Mark’s institutional data, we trade. If not, we sit out.
Today everything lined up bearish. The process was right. The timing just wasn’t there.
Monday: Same process, +95% winner.
December 4th: Same process, +105% winner.
November 5th: Same process, +140% winner.
Process over outcomes. Always.
The Beauty of Zero DTE Options
Today’s trade cost 23 cents. If we’d bought options expiring tomorrow, same trade would’ve cost $2.20.
When you’re wrong 7% of the time, you want to lose as little as possible.
When you’re right 93% of the time, you want maximum leverage on small risk.
Zero days to expiration gives us both. And no overnight worry about what happens while we sleep.
Why Transparency Matters
Most trading services hide their losses. Cherry-pick their wins. Show you only the highlights.
Mark and I trade every alert with our own money. When we lose, we lose alongside you.
Today I lost money too. Same trade, same outcome, same 23-cent risk.
But I’ve made that back 13 times over since November 12th.
What Tomorrow Looks Like
3:00 PM tomorrow, I’ll be reading charts again. Fibonacci levels. Moving averages. Order flow patterns.
If the setup is there, we’ll trade. If not, we’ll wait for Wednesday.
The Fed won’t be announcing anything tomorrow. No press conferences. No rate decisions. Just normal end-of-day institutional rebalancing.
That’s when this system really shines. When it’s just us versus the daily patterns that actually move markets.
Tomorrow at 3:00 PM, I’ll be reading the same charts that have been right 93% of the time.
The question is: will you be trading alongside us or watching from the sidelines while we get back to winning?
Rock On,
Voz
