The 70% Rule That Changed How I Risk Everything
- Olivia Voz
Hey gamers!
Okay so I was explaining zones today and someone asked about position sizing and honestly, this is probably one of the most important things I do that nobody really talks about.
If someone’s telling me this trade has a lower chance to make me money, I’m gonna put less money in it.
Like, duh, right? But I used to be an idiot about this.
I’d risk the same amount on every single trade.
My best setups, my worst setups, my “eh maybe” setups – same size every time. Made no sense but that’s what I did.
How I Actually Think About This
So I’ve got three buckets basically:
My stellar setups – have a 90% chance to complete. They’re crossing all the T’s and dotting all the I’s. Everything’s perfect. This is where I do my normal size.
Then I’ve got what I call low probability zones. They’re still decent – maybe 70% chance to complete, which is way better than 50-50 – but they don’t have all the testing my regular zones have. For these? I cut my size in half. If I normally do 10 contracts, I’m doing 5.
And then there’s the narrow zones or the lunch money trades. Maybe the risk-reward sucks, or it’s just not that interesting. These I either skip or trade tiny. Like embarrassingly small. One contract. Whatever.
The Thing Nobody Gets
People think consistency means risking the same amount every time. That’s not consistency – that’s being stubborn.
Real consistency is consistently matching your risk to what you actually know about the trade.
Okay…bad analogy but you get the idea hopefully.
You wouldn’t pay premium prices for regular gas, so why would you risk premium amounts on regular setups?
What Actually Happened
This saved my ass so many times. Instead of losing big on mediocre trades, I lose small on mediocre trades and make big on great trades.
The math just works better. And after doing this for a while, you naturally start skipping the garbage trades because you realize they’re not worth your time.
Just Do This
Before every trade, ask yourself: “What tier is this really?”
If it’s your best setup – normal size.
If it’s decent but not amazing – half size.
If you’re trading just to stay busy – don’t.
That’s it. Quality over quantity, always.
And honestly, this isn’t just about position sizing. It’s about developing judgment. When you force yourself to categorize every trade, you become way more selective about what you actually take.
Your trading gets cleaner. You stop chasing garbage just because you’re bored.
Rock on,
Voz