Hey There Gamers!
Sometimes the market hands you gifts wrapped in doubt.
This morning I posted a “Low Probability Call Zone” – my way of saying “I’m not super confident, but there’s something here worth watching.”
The Setup
“When SPY has a clean break into 617.56: Buy To Open the SPY Jul2, 618 Calls. Your target to sell is when SPY reaches 618.10. You can hold a goof to 618.45”
Translation: I saw a setup, but the market was “rejecting multi day vwap” and “battling” key resistance. Not exactly screaming confidence.
What Actually Happened
The zone triggered. Then Vietnam happened.
Trump drops this bomb mid-morning: “It is my Great Honor to announce that I have just made a Trade Deal with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam…”
Market said “trade deal = risk on” and SPY launched past not just the target, but the goof level too.
Your Results
Even the cautious players crushed it. hammy “chickened out” and still made 19%.
I called it “low probability” because the technical setup wasn’t perfect. The market was chopping around multi-day VWAP, rejecting the zone multiple times.
But sometimes “low probability” just means the catalyst hasn’t shown up yet.
Trump’s Vietnam trade deal was the spark that turned a hesitant setup into a rocket ship.
Low probability doesn’t mean low reward. It means smaller size, tighter stops, and being ready for either outcome.
spreir asking “what means Low Probability, a bigger chance to lose?” – It means I’m not as confident, so trade accordingly. Risk less, but still trade the setup if it triggers cleanly.
The zone worked because:
From my French café, watching you execute with discipline while I fight jet lag and mosquitoes – this is why we do this.
Not every low probability zone will get a Trump tweet catalyst. But when they do, you want to be positioned with the right size to capitalize.
Some days the market gives you certainty. Other days it gives you opportunity disguised as uncertainty.
Today was the latter. And you handled it beautifully.
Voz
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