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It’s Not A Consolidation Anymore

If you're on Twitter right now and you've seen anyone say oh no, this is just a consolidation, it's not a consolidation anymore, homies. This has broken down. We officially broke down on a non-catalyst, because yes, the Korea story is out and about now, but we were already breaking down before that. The reason I think this still has a huge way to go has nothing to do with the news, though. It's what's sitting underneath us on the volume profile, and it's a direct result of that move we made back in June. Let me show you what I mean. Go back to the Iran drama. You had a fragile market, that took it down, and then with that being solved you got a parabolic move higher. That move was fugazi. And when price runs parabolic like that, it doesn't build volume on the way up. Nobody's transacting

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Not Every Level Lets You Go

We're sitting right below multi-day VWAP right now. I want to talk about this level specifically, because it does not behave the way people think a level behaves. You break a 200-period moving average and that kind of helps you. Path of least resistance to the other side. Multi-day VWAP is a completely different animal. You break it and it pulls you right back in. There's a word for what this level does to you and it took me a second to find it, so let me show you the chart first and then I'll tell you what it is. Start with the moving average, because that one works the way you'd expect. You break a 200-period and that kind of helps. It opens up the path of least resistance to that other side. And if it holds instead of breaking, it creates a concrete wall, kind of hinders price.

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Trading Today 7.27.26

Something is very weird right now. And it would be a little more obvious how bad this is looking if it was not July. Let's just cut to the meat here. This does not look good. The Qs are breaking down. They are breaking down, guys. SPY had an ascending wedge and that gave out too, so both have officially broken down. On what, though? I seriously don't know. I don't know if it's a front run of tech earnings, I don't know if it's Iran, I don't know if it's the Fed. But there's one thing in the volume that tells me this is real. I'll show you the exact spot where people started figuring it out, and how far I think it goes. Somebody asked me today that the market looks like it's getting ready to drop. Honey, it's dropping. It's dropping. That's the thing about doing this

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